Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 59,113
2 South Dakota 53,494
3 Iowa 41,551
4 Wisconsin 41,464
5 Mississippi 40,488
6 Louisiana 40,380
7 Alabama 39,563
8 Tennessee 37,729
9 Florida 37,592
10 Arkansas 37,463
11 Nebraska 37,048
12 Idaho 36,524
13 Utah 36,341
14 Georgia 35,196
15 South Carolina 34,576
16 Arizona 34,001
17 Illinois 33,527
18 Texas 33,008
19 Nevada 32,983
20 Oklahoma 31,365
21 Montana 31,339
22 Missouri 31,302
23 Rhode Island 31,031
24 Kansas 29,797
25 Indiana 27,418
26 New Jersey 27,180
27 Minnesota 26,726
28 New York 26,446
29 North Carolina 26,382
30 Delaware 25,802
31 Kentucky 24,755
32 District of Columbia 24,610
33 Maryland 24,253
34 California 23,761
35 Wyoming 23,711
36 Massachusetts 23,171
37 Alaska 22,687
38 New Mexico 22,525
39 Virginia 21,368
40 Puerto Rico 20,872
41 Connecticut 19,972
42 Michigan 19,776
43 Colorado 19,212
44 Ohio 18,735
45 Pennsylvania 16,755
46 Washington 14,853
47 West Virginia 13,884
48 Hawaii 10,796
49 Oregon 10,768
50 New Hampshire 8,247
51 Maine 4,995
52 Vermont 3,519

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 1,711
2 South Dakota 1,629
3 Wisconsin 842
4 Iowa 830
5 Montana 799
6 Wyoming 700
7 Illinois 611
8 Utah 607
9 Nebraska 605
10 Alaska 537
11 Minnesota 494
12 Indiana 465
13 Colorado 461
14 Missouri 395
15 Idaho 387
16 Kentucky 379
17 New Mexico 370
18 Arkansas 369
19 Kansas 339
20 Oklahoma 330
21 Alabama 328
22 Nevada 300
23 Ohio 286
24 West Virginia 263
25 Michigan 252
26 Tennessee 240
27 North Carolina 231
28 Arizona 227
29 South Carolina 222
30 Mississippi 214
31 Texas 212
32 Massachusetts 200
33 Florida 198
34 Delaware 196
35 Puerto Rico 194
36 New Jersey 190
37 Rhode Island 176
38 Pennsylvania 166
39 Virginia 164
40 Georgia 152
41 Maryland 151
42 District of Columbia 139
43 Oregon 128
44 New York 112
45 New Hampshire 109
46 Louisiana 107
47 Washington 103
48 California 101
49 Connecticut 71
50 Maine 61
51 Hawaii 56
52 Vermont 29

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,841
2 New York 1,705
3 Massachusetts 1,452
4 Connecticut 1,294
5 Louisiana 1,274
6 Rhode Island 1,133
7 Mississippi 1,124
8 District of Columbia 915
9 Arizona 821
10 Illinois 796
11 Florida 781
12 Michigan 771
13 South Carolina 764
14 Georgia 733
15 Delaware 729
16 North Dakota 703
17 Pennsylvania 694
18 Maryland 686
19 Arkansas 648
20 Indiana 648
21 Texas 640
22 Alabama 606
23 Nevada 578
24 Iowa 549
25 Missouri 503
26 South Dakota 493
27 New Mexico 489
28 Tennessee 486
29 Ohio 453
30 Minnesota 448
31 California 447
32 Virginia 428
33 North Carolina 420
34 Colorado 401
35 Wisconsin 362
36 New Hampshire 355
37 Idaho 353
38 Kansas 353
39 Montana 353
40 Kentucky 347
41 Nebraska 340
42 Oklahoma 339
43 Washington 324
44 Puerto Rico 260
45 West Virginia 255
46 Utah 191
47 Oregon 163
48 Hawaii 153
49 Wyoming 150
50 Maine 109
51 Alaska 106
52 Vermont 92

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 13
2 Montana 12
3 South Dakota 12
4 Arkansas 7
5 Delaware 7
6 Missouri 6
7 Indiana 5
8 New Mexico 5
9 Wisconsin 5
10 Alabama 4
11 Mississippi 4
12 Tennessee 4
13 Illinois 3
14 Minnesota 3
15 North Carolina 3
16 Oklahoma 3
17 South Carolina 3
18 Alaska 2
19 Arizona 2
20 Florida 2
21 Idaho 2
22 Iowa 2
23 Kansas 2
24 Kentucky 2
25 Massachusetts 2
26 Nebraska 2
27 Texas 2
28 West Virginia 2
29 Georgia 1
30 Louisiana 1
31 Maryland 1
32 Michigan 1
33 Nevada 1
34 Oregon 1
35 Pennsylvania 1
36 Puerto Rico 1
37 Rhode Island 1
38 Utah 1
39 California 0
40 Colorado 0
41 Connecticut 0
42 District of Columbia 0
43 Hawaii 0
44 Maine 0
45 New Hampshire 0
46 New Jersey 0
47 New York 0
48 Ohio 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Virginia 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 179,438 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 167,415 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 159,075 3 99
Lafayette Florida 151,864 4 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 147,225 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 50,393 321 89
Richland South Carolina 42,462 533 83
York South Carolina 24,913 1594 49
Orange California 19,548 2048 34
Pierce Washington 12,994 2547 18

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 1 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 2 99
Hancock Georgia 5,203 3 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 4 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 5 99
Richland South Carolina 659 892 71
Davidson Tennessee 507 1211 61
Orange California 467 1317 58
York South Carolina 381 1561 50
Pierce Washington 283 1860 40

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons